Fantasy Baseball - 2010 Strategy

I'll be posting a series of blogs about my fantasy baseball team in the coming days/weeks. I had a great strategy this year and I thought I had executed it perfectly. The result? I'm toiling anywhere from 6th to 9th place depending on if it's a good day or not.

Heading into the season, I was confident that I had a 2nd place team (the best team in the league before and immediately after the draft was a foregone conclusion).

First, the details of the league. It's a challenging 10-team AL-only league without unlimited daily moves. In this league, you can not get rid of a player unless he is DL'd, traded to the NL, sent to the minors, or (gasp!) DFA'd. These kinds of players are nearly impossible to unload on unsuspecting owners as well, because who doesn't suspect that Gerald Laird will be a batting average anchor with no productivity that will be on the team for the full season?! (more on that later...)

We have a $260 budget to spend on 23 players with no limit on how many guys we keep or how much we spend on keepers. I had a feeling early in spring training that our league would be aggressive with keepers, making the draft pool thin.

I was correct.

Last year, I kept a lot of guys but was cocky heading into the draft fresh off three straight championships. I remember my sharp 15 year old (at the time) cousin who was assisting his dad, calling me out for this strategy. I just looked at him, showed him my trophy (thank you, CBS Sports) and thought "nuff said." Well, I struggled to finish 6th place, so maybe he was on to something?

But, in the process of surging to 6th last year (I was as low as 9th - no one but Schultz is ever in 10th), I picked up youngsters like Gordon Beckham, Nolan Reimold, Michael Brantley, Marc Rzcepzynski, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, Derek Holland, etc. All of those mid-season pick-ups can be kept at $10, which is a decent salary to pay unproven talent, making it difficult to judge who will keep it going and who will fall off.

In addition, I had draft bargains like Rick Porcello ($2), Alex Rodriguez ($31), Kendry Morales ($12), Jim Thome ($1) and I had acquired Jacoby Ellsbury via trade for an expiring Justin Morneau contract. Ellsbury was priced at $13. To top it off, I had keepers John Lackey ($18) and Jonathan Papelbon ($16) and Jason Bartlett ($9).

So I was aggressive with my keepers, on offense keeping A-Rod, Morales, Ellsbury, Bartlett, Beckham, Reimold, Brantley and Thome. On the pitching side, I came in with Lackey, Papelbon, Niemann, Davis and Porcello.

I was in great shape heading into the draft. I had power in Morales, A-Rod, Thome and Reimold. I had speed in Ellsbury, Brantley and Bartlett. I had average in A-Rod, Morales, Brantley, Ellsbury, Bartlett and Beckham, and I had high upside guys that if they didn't succeed would get sent down before long (Beckham, Reimold, Brantley).

For pitching, I was psyched about my starters in Lackey, Niemann, Davis and Porcello - 4 solid starters and a stud closer.

I decided to extend Ellsbury's contract to $23, giving me this year, next year and 2012 with him at that price, as opposed to letting him expire at $13 after this season. I waffled on Bartlett, but decided to keep him at $9 and let him expire after this season. Papelbon is also going into his final season, as I had him at $6 in our original switch to the auction.

So, I kept 13 of my 23 roster spots for $162. I had $98 to spend at the auction, needing to fill 2 catcher spots, middle infield, corner infield, 2 outfield spots and four pitchers.

My strategy is going great so far. I have some stud bats, solid pitchers and a boss closer. And money to spend.

Going into the auction, I decided to punt on catchers since all of the goods were gone (one team kept Mauer and Victor...). But I wanted a stud bat, a guy in the mold of Cabrera, Sizemore, Kinsler, Teixeira. I really had Kinsler and Sizemore in my sights because I knew I couldn't get Tex or Miggy for the money I had. If I didn't get 2 of those studs at decent prices, I had a few secondary options as well.

For pitching, I fell in love with Brian Matusz thanks to the ESPN Fantasy Focus podcast that I became addicted to. I was willing to spend up to $15 on him, but wanted him for the $7-8 range. After that, I would round out my staff with young power arms that could assume closer duties (Bard, Joba, Perry, Feliz, Thornton, Guerrier, etc.).

I made 2 massive mistakes at the auction: 1.) getting stuck with Gerald Laird trying to get a catcher of the board, thinking someone would bid $2; and 2.) getting stuck with Fernando Rodney when he was thrown out for $1, I bid on him trying to price enforce and got stuck.

I got Matusz for $15, Kinsler for $33 and Josh Hamilton for $27 - I love the Ranger lineup and was happy to get Hamilton as a 2nd tier stud bat, especially with the keepers I was bringing back. I added Inge for $2, not bad for 25 homers, and Jose Bautista for $1, another potential for 20 homers and a guy that plays both corners and the OF giving me in-season flexibility. Unfortunately, it looks like I'm punting on average with Laird, Kinsler, Inge and Bautista. But I look good in the other 3 categories and I love my pitching staff.

My other catcher is an upside buy with Adam Moore for $1. I rounded out my pitching staff by missing out on Bard but getting Feliz for $9, again I got stuck with Rodney and got Perry for $1. I left $6 on the table and Joba went for $7, so I might have been able to fill my Rodney spot with Joba, which was a major regret at the draft.

In hindsight, Rodney has been great value and could get more saves and he has 5 wins. Matusz is 2-9 on a horrible Baltimore team, Wade Davis is struggling as a soph but Niemann has been everything that Davis hasn't. Porcello just got demoted but Feliz has been great as a closer. Perry has been bad but finally got hurt while Lackey and Papelbon have been solid.

On offense, Kinsler took longer to get going from his ankle injury, but finally appears to be in a groove and Hamilton has been a beast and worth every penny. A-Rod's power isn't there yet and Kendry broke his ankle after a walk-off granny. Beckham has been awful and so has Bartlett. My youngsters in the outfield, Brantley and Reimold, both were awful and got demoted in the opening month. I certainly shouldn't have kept those 2 but I wouldn't have done anything else differently (who wouldn't have kept Beckham for $10?!?!).

Jacoby Ellsbury right now has probably cost me at least 5 points in the standings, and my terrible sub .200 batting catchers and Bartlett have probably cost me another 5 points if Ellsbury was hitting .315 and playing everyday. 10 points puts me in the top 3. Those points would be coming in the SB/Avg categories, and now will be very hard to make up especially since Ellsbury is still not playing.

My other problem this year is midseason pickups like Andruw Jones, who was responsible for leading my team in steals for the first month (ouch) but is now hitting horribly for me and I can't wait for Brantley to get the recall so I can dump him.

I think I can still right the ship and finish 3rd, but Bill and Russ are running away with this thing. I'll do some blogs about other teams in the future, and will touch on their squads first. I'm shocked at how great Bill's team is doing - I'm never shocked that Bill is in the top-3, but 60 points and leading the league was unexpected.

In order for me to surge in the 2nd half, I need A-Rod to go on a Hamilton-streak, I need Hamilton to keep hitting like it's 2008, I need Kinsler to regain his power stroke and Ellsbury to come back and run and hit for average. Bautista hit 20 first half homers and I need 40 out of him to have a shot at a top-3 finish. Thome is starting to play now with Cuddy at 3B, and he homered in back-to-back games and has a great OPS, if he stays in the lineup, that will help if (when) Bautista slows down. Beckham HAS to turn it around, and fast.

For the staff, Lackey can keep winning and that will make me happy, my closers have to keep closing and it would be nice for Rodney to overtake the Dirty Fuentes so I can make a trade. Niemann has to keep it up, Davis either has to get demoted or get consistent, and Matusz just needs to pitch out of the 6th and 7th innings better. He's been great through 5 in most of his starts before unravelling. Now that I have Tommy Hunter in Ryan Perry's spot, if he can hold down a rotation spot he'll win some games with that lineup. Corey Patterson needs to steal some bags and hit some bombs. I can gain some points with my current squad so I probably won't hit the trade market unless I gain a 3rd closer...

It's a long climb, but I have the talent. In baseball, over 162 game, 6 month season, "water always seeks it's own level" - A-Rod will hit 30/100, Kinsler will hit some dingers, etc.